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2011
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07
April 2011 China Excavator Market Monitoring Analysis and Forecast Report
The PMI for April was 52.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.5 percentage points. Generally, the PMI index tends to rise continuously in March and April, but this year the PMI rebound in March was weaker than in previous years. After a brief rebound last month, the PMI index in April continued to decline, indicating that with the adjustment of China's economic structure, economic growth is undergoing a moderate correction. From January to April, the total planned investment for newly started projects was 5,338.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Following a sharp decline in the number of projects, the investment amount also declined this month. ◆ Domestic brands are capturing market share from Japanese and Korean brands, while European and American brands remain stable.
The PMI for April was 52.9%, a month-on-month decline of 0.5 percentage points. Generally, the PMI index tends to rise continuously in March and April, but this year the PMI rebound in March was weaker than in previous years. After a brief rebound last month, the PMI index in April continued to decline, indicating that with China's economic structural adjustment, economic growth is undergoing a moderate correction. From January to April, the total planned investment for newly started projects was 5,338.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Following a sharp drop in the number of projects, investment amount also declined this month.
◆ Domestic brands are capturing market share from Japan and South Korea, while European and American brands remain stable.
From January to April, 13 domestic excavator brands sold a total of 35,253 units, achieving a market share of 34.76%, higher than the 28.71% market share in 2010. Among them, domestic brands such as Sany Heavy Machinery, Yuchai, Liugong, Shandong Heavy Industry Construction Machinery, and Foton Lovol all had year-on-year growth rates exceeding the overall industry level, showing strong momentum. European and American excavator brands represented by Caterpillar, Volvo, and Atlas sold 12,599 units from January to April, accounting for 12.47% of the market share, slightly higher than the 11.57% level in 2010, showing stable performance; Japanese and South Korean brands shrank, with market share declining rapidly.
◆ Demand is shifting towards both ends, with a significant decline in the 20-25T segment.
From the demand structure perspective, the 6-13T, 13-19T, and 35-34.9T tonnage segments grew rapidly, with increases between 80% and 95%; next were the ≤1T and 30-35T tonnage segments, which also exceeded the overall industry growth level. The traditional important sales segment of 20-25T continued to shrink after the first quarter, with the market share from January to April dropping 5.40 percentage points compared to 2010, as demand gradually shifts towards both ends.
◆ Export growth far exceeds the domestic market, with an expected annual increase of over 50%.
From January to April, manufacturers cumulatively exported 1,272 units, a year-on-year increase of 73.77%, more than 26 percentage points higher than the domestic market. According to the latest import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs for January to April, China's total import and export value in the first four months was 1,100.32 billion USD, a 28.5% increase compared to the same period last year. Exports were 555.3 billion USD, up 27.4% year-on-year; imports were 545.02 billion USD, up 29.6%. The cumulative trade surplus was 10.28 billion USD, down 32.8%.
It is worth noting that excavator sales in April 2011 fell 38.79% month-on-month compared to March, much higher than the 27.48% month-on-month decline in April 2010, indicating a faster decline rate, exceeding the market expectation of 20-25%. According to a survey by China Construction Machinery Trade Network, the main reason is a change in demand, with some of April's demand being overdrawn in March; additionally, traditional promotional methods have diminishing effectiveness, and new methods have not been developed to follow up. The market is expected to shrink further in May, with the month-on-month decline expected to exceed 20% again.